Aaron Judge’s light-tower power can be almost comical at times, but a short home run counts exactly the same. Judge’s 12th homer of the season was a 341-foot shot on Tuesday night and he’s now tied with Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber for the MLB lead. However, Judge’s home run hot streaks often come at a steep price, as the latest MLB home run odds at Caesars Sportsbook for Wednesday list him at +187 to go yard tonight.
Even with three 50-homer seasons under his belt, that kind of pricing can make it difficult to use Judge in your MLB HR parlays. So where can you find the best Aaron Judge home run odds and who are Wednesday’s best HR values? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 10-5 roll on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model has hit at least one MLB home run prop in four of the last five days and is up 33.55 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 29 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +21031 odds and would pay out $1056.56 on a $5 bet at BetMGM.
Francisco Lindor, Mets (+500)
The 31-year-old surprisingly hasn’t made an All-Star team since 2019, but he’s been top-10 in MVP voting each of the last three seasons and was the 2024 NL MVP runner-up. Lindor now has five 30-homer seasons to his name after hitting 33 bombs last season and he’s already hit seven homers in 36 games this year, including a three-run homer against the Diamondbacks earlier this series.
While Lindor is a switch-hitter, most of his power this season has come when batting from the left side when facing right-handed pitching. He has six of his seven home runs this season against righties,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +370 for Lindor to hit a HR.” FanDuel is offering the best Francisco Lindor home run odds, and you can get up to $200 in bonus bets with a $5 winning bet.
George Springer, Blue Jays (+600)
Springer is coming off the worst statistical season of his career, but he’s turned things around early in 2025. He’s slashing .316/.419/.541 over 32 games this season and he launched his fourth home run of the season last night in Anaheim. He’s homered twice now in his last four games and he’s got a great matchup on Wednesday night.
“Springer is raking against left-handed pitchers this season with a 1.262 OPS and all four of his HRs coming against lefties,” Fetner said. “Springer doesn’t have a home run in his career against Yusei Kikuchi, but he is 7-for-16 (.438) against him in his career, so he sees the ball very well out of his hand.” The model sets Springer’s line at +400, so you’re getting tremendous value here with DraftKings and BetMGM offering +600. Bet this at DraftKings here and get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager.
Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (+475)
The former top-100 prospect hit 61 home runs in 1,010 career at-bats in the minors and the power has been the one part of his game that has translated well so far in Cleveland. He hit five home runs during a late-season call-up in 2024 and has already hit eight home runs in 109 at-bats this season, and he’s been particularly effective in day games.
“Manzardo likes playing during the day, as he has a 1.044 OPS and 6 HRs in 15 day games compared to a .594 OPS and 2 HRs in 17 night games,” Fetner said. The model sees fare value at this price, which you can find at BetMGM Sportsbook.
More MLB picks for Wednesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Wednesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 91-48 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 14-7 over his last 21 MLB money-line picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Wednesday.
