It’s the final slate before the WNBA All-Star Break, and there are five games on tap. There are three afternoon games, highlighted by the 15-6 Phoenix Mercury taking on the 19-4 Minnesota Lynx at 1 p.m. ET. The Indiana Fever and New York Liberty clash at 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network, however Caitlin Clark’s availability is up in the air after she suffered an injury late against the Connecticut Sun on Tuesday.
If you’re interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites for Wednesday, July 16, then make sure to see today’s WNBA best bets using odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook.
Today’s WNBA picks:
- Fever first half +5.5 -112 (1 unit, DK)
- Brionna Jones Over 6.5 rebounds -125 (0.5 units, DK)
- Jones 10+ rebounds +390 (0.25 units, FD)
- Allisha Gray Over 4.5 rebounds -136 (0.5 units, FD)
- Gray 8+ rebounds +580 (0.25 units, FD)
- Jordin Canada Over 3.5 rebounds -125 (0.5 units, FD)
- Canada 8+ rebounds +1300 (0.25 units, FD)
Fever first half +5.5
The Fever will likely be without Caitlin Clark after she appeared to injure her groin late in Tuesday night’s game against the Sun, and it’s also the second leg of a road back-to-back. As a result, this spread is now up to Liberty -9.5. While I think that line is a bit high, backing the Fever in the first half is an angle I feel stronger about.
In the Liberty’s past 11 games (one was with Jonquel Jones, one was with Jones leaving in the second quarter after injuring her ankle and nine were without Jones), they have been trailing at the half nine times. The only two exceptions were when the Liberty led by three points at half over the Seattle Storm at home and when the Liberty also led by three at the break on the road against the Golden State Valkyries—and both of those were after New York was down after the first quarter.
The Liberty are clearly not the same team without Jones, and it’s really been showing up in first halves. When New York raced out to its 9-0 start on the season, the team ranked first in net rating in both the first quarter and second quarter.
The Fever played a much tighter game last night against the Sun than expected and had to play their starters at the end of the game. Without Clark, their key players may have to play even more minutes. With those two factors, there is a chance that they run out of gas in the second half since it’s the second game of a back-to-back.
But this is also a group that held the Las Vegas Aces to 24 points in the first half and the Lynx to 27 points in the first half earlier this month, both times without Clark. I think this first half will be played at a slower pace with Clark likely sidelined and that points will be harder to come by, making that +5.5 rather valuable.
Dream rebounding props (Brionna Jones, Allisha Gray and Jordin Canada)
There are a lot of injuries on this slate, including in this Dream-Sky matchup. Angel Reese is missing her first game of the season with a leg injury and the Chicago Sky will also be without Ariel Atkins, while Rhyne Howard is out for the Dream.
Reese has been incredible of late, as she’s averaged 19.1 points on 52.7% shooting and 14.4 rebounds over her past eight games. With her out, there are now a lot of rebounds available to be grabbed, along with the fact that she’s been Chicago’s most efficient weapon on offense. Atkins (13.9 PPG) is second in points for the Sky and the team’s top perimeter scorer.
It makes sense that sportsbooks have adjusted Kamilla Cardoso‘s rebounding prop to 9.5 (Over -108, Under -122 at FD) after it was 7.5 last game and 6.5 in the four contests before that one. But I’m not sure how many additional minutes she’ll play with Reese out and Atlanta certainly has the size to counter her. So instead, I think the value lies with Dream rebounding props.
Howard is tied for fourth on the Dream with 5.0 rebounds per game and is fourth with 3.9 defensive rebounds per game. We saw what life was like without Howard last game for the Dream against the Liberty, as Brittney Griner (10 rebounds), Allisha Gray (8 rebounds), Jordin Canada (8 rebounds), Brionna Jones (7 rebounds) and Naz Hillman (7 rebounds) all had nice efforts on the glass. Just six Dream players logged more than 7 minutes (it was seven the game before with Howard), as Dream coach Karl Smesko has really tightened the rotation lately.
Now, the Liberty are the third-worst rebounding team in the WNBA (they rebound 47.9% of missed shots) and the Sky are the best in the WNBA (52.7% rebounding percentage), but obviously Reese plays a big part in that. The Dream are also a strong rebounding team (fifth in rebounding percentage at 52.1%) and I think there will be a lot of defensive rebounding opportunities for them with Reese and Atkins not taking a bulk of the shots.
The Dream have also played the Sky twice this season, and Jones racked up 22 total rebounds (11 in each game) while Gray has pulled down 12 (7 and 5) in those contests—and that was going against Reese on the glass. Cardoso is not nearly as vicious as a rebounder even though she is taller, so I can certainly see some Dream players once again putting forth strong rebounding efforts.
Overall record: 36-37, +3.01 units
