J.P. Morgan Chase is out with its 2025 Business Leaders Outlook Pulse Survey – taking the temperature of middle market business owners about the current economic conditions.
The survey, conducted between June 4–18, polled 718 U.S. middle market (annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million) business owners and leaders across various industries.
“Businesses are operating with caution in the current environment,” said Matt Sable, co-head of J.P. Morgan Commercial Bank.
At the top line, the survey found a steep drop in national economy optimism – from 65% in January to 32% in June. Notably, 25% of respondents expect a recession this year, which is up from 8% earlier this year.
Key findings in the survey include:
- 44% are delaying their plans to some extent – citing factors such as:
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- Political uncertainty 74%
- Market volatility 37%
- Shifts in consumer demand 37%
- Geopolitical events 35%
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- Top challenges:
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- Economic conditions 55%
- Tariffs 41%
- Revenue and sales growth 41%
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However, despite these findings about the conditions and the aforementioned uncertainty/external challenges – these owners and leaders remain confident in their individual business’s performance. In fact, 85% of respondents are projecting steady to increased company through the end of 2025.
Other key findings pertaining to that confidence include:
- 40% are not changing their plans; 14% have accelerated plans
- 78% expect revenue and sales to increase or remain the same
- 73% expect profits to increase or remain the same
- 37% plan to increase headcount; 45% plan to keep the same headcount
Sable said, “Leaders are recalibrating where necessary to ensure they can continue to deliver for their clients and communities – highlighting their resilience and determination.”
The full survey found can be found here.
